Why 2025 NIH "Winners and Losers" Lists Can Be Misleading
As 2025 federal research funding results come into focus, we're starting to see institution-level "winners and losers" lists (e.g., GEN's Top 50).
These are useful, but they can also be misleading because they conflate 2025 dollars with out-year commitments. With more multi-year awards funded in advance, an institution can look "up" in total awarded dollars while still being down in 2025 spendable dollars.
The Multi-Year Funding Factor
When NIH shifts toward multi-year funded (MYF) awards paid in advance, total award amounts include future-year commitments. This creates a disconnect:
- Total awarded: May appear higher due to multi-year commitments
- Spendable in FY25: May actually be lower year-over-year
An institution ranking high on a "Top 50" list might still face cash flow challenges in the current fiscal year.
What to Watch For
When reviewing institution rankings:
- Distinguish awarded vs. spendable — Look beyond headline totals
- Consider the MYF shift — More awards now include advance funding
- Track trends over time — One year's ranking can be distorted by timing
The Bottom Line
These lists provide useful benchmarks, but context matters. The real question isn't just "how much was awarded" but "how much is available to spend this year."